Wrong answer to the right problem

Welcome to the Marketing in a Box weekly segment called Wrong answer to the right problem, where we dissect one sharp, well-executed tactic that looked like progress and explain why it didn't matter.

Was this email forwarded to you?

Segment #04: Diversification without a theory is not strategy

🎯 The Setup

I wrote this back in 2022 as I was putting together the marketing strategy for TeePublic:

"Diversifying our marketing mix (long-term effectiveness) is easier said than done due to the aforementioned tension between first purchase profitability and an over-reliance on Google and lower-funnel marketing activities."

Investing in non-Google and non-Meta marketing channels takes time to become profitable. Investing in a secondary channel after a brand saturated its primary channel means coming to the table with a different set of expectations. As Casey Winters writes about the second growth channel:

"Keep playing the hits" doesn't work when you try to diversify the marketing mix. What worked on Google is fundamentally different than what will work on Meta or TikTok or Snap or SMS. Your brand doesn't have a natural advantage that unlocked growth in the first marketing channel. So when you're thinking about diversification, saying "we should diversify the marketing mix" isn’t a strategy (even if you declare it).

When it comes to diversifying the marketing mix, you must have a theory of the case. In other words, what's the theory of how you win in this new channel and what are the resources you need to test and validate it.

⚠️ The Wrong Answer

"TikTok is so hot right now. We should be on it." let’s test it.”
"Reddit ads are cheap. We should try it."
"Hey, we haven't run YouTube in a while. Let's spin it up and see what happens."

Just because you can advertise somewhere doesn't mean you should. Without a theory of the case, you have no path to growth. You'll add cost, complexity, and creative overhead. You'll say 'yes' to an uncertainty while saying 'no' to foundational work:

• new products to unlock new markets

• improving customer lifetime value

This is the foundational work to pursue rather than immediately jumping into a new channel. Furthermore, and this is something that founders tend to miss: it is critical that new channel investment is not tied to traditional performance metrics like ROAS or CAC. It cannot be tied to the marketing spend line item in the P&L.

Why?

Because it doesn't act like your primary marketing channel…you know…the one you cracked and leveraged your product's natural advantage. Just because you have product-channel fit on Google Ads doesn't mean you'll have it on Meta Ads. Or, more to the point, it doesn't mean you'll have the same type of product-channel fit on Meta.

🧩 The Real Problem

The real problem is a lack of system depth, sequencing, and resource-backed validation. You cracked the first channel, mostly by luck (i.e. a built-in advantage). That doesn't mean that each channel gets the same treatment. So, framed another way, the problem isn't "what other channels can we try?" It's "what is the bottleneck in our current channel and what is our theory of how we win in another channel?"

1. Maximization → Have we fully extracted depth from our core channel (audience segments, creative cycles, bidding structures, tracking hygiene)

2. Theory of the Case → If we expand, do we know why this channel, why now, and what resources are required?

3. Sequencing → Is expansion additive (compounding on our growth curve) or dilutive (splintering focus/ops)?

"Lack of channels" is not a problem. Nor is it a strategy.

✅ The Right Lever

Ask “what’s our theory of the case for winning here, and what resources do we need to validate it?”

A theory of the case forces clarity:

• Hypothesis: Why this channel, why now?

• Resources: Do we have the tracking, creative muscle, and ops support to test properly?

• Success criteria: What counts as validation vs distraction?

Questions that must be asked and answered when developing the theory of the case for a new channel:

• What do we want to achieve on this platform?

• Where in the funnel is this platform located?

• What is the one behavior we are trying to influence?

• What is our offer?

• How are we going to influence this behavior through our messaging?

• How does this platform interact with other marketing touch points?

• How much are we going to spend?

• How is the budget going to be operationalized?

• What is the time duration?

• What is success? What is failure? How are you measuring this (i.e. KPIs, cohort analysis, etc.)?

• What technical expertise is required to operate the platform, and where is that expertise expected to be between Marketing and Engineering?

• What investment from engineering is required to launch this platform? What would be needed to continue supporting or optimizing it?

📖 A Real Example

Earlier this year, I built a theory of the case for scaling Meta ads at a marketplace that sells in-person lessons. On paper, the channel had worked before, but results had flatlined. Instead of "just spending more," we reframed it around three big differences:

1. Tracking

   • We were flying half-blind. No Conversions API, no server-side tagging, and only one standard event in use.

   • The fix: implement CAPI, map all standard events (initiate checkout, lead, search, contact), and pipe CRM data in via Zapier. The goal was to bypass browser loss and give Meta clean signals to optimize against.

2. Creative Process

   • Historically, creative bottlenecks killed velocity. We installed a betatyping process: rapid prototyping of multiple angles, testing them at small budgets, then scaling winners into high-quality creative.

   • This allowed us to validate dozens of hypotheses per month instead of a handful per quarter.

3. Audience Theory

   • Rather than blanket targeting, we defined distinct personas.

   • Each audience had tailored positioning so we weren't guessing at relevance.

That was the theory: better signals, faster creative velocity, sharper audience alignment.

🔥 TL;DR for Founders

Diversifying the mix is all about sequencing, focus, and theory. It's not "just spin it up and hope for the best."

And inside the Growth Marketing OS, you'll find the actual map for building that theory: opportunity filters, validation frameworks, and execution checklists that keep your team disciplined instead of distracted.

This newsletter is for you. What marketing challenges are you facing in your startup journey? Reply directly to this email with your questions or topics you'd like to see covered in future issues.

Until next week,

Adam

P.S. Found this helpful? Forward it to another founder who might benefit. We're all in this together.

P.P.S. Don't forget to download the Growth Marketing OS by clicking the button below.